What Impact Will Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Have on Housing Industry?

November 4, 2009—(MCT)—Congress is a step closer to extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and offering a new credit to other types of buyers, but some analysts are downplaying the controversial stimulus’ effect on the housing market.

In a recent interview, Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Robert Stevenson said the Senate’s proposal for extending the $8,000 tax credit for new homebuyers will have a “limited impact” on home sales.

A Senate committee reached a deal last week to extend the $8,000 tax credit and offer a smaller $6,500 credit for some existing homeowners. The main pitfall of the proposal is that it only pushes back the expiration of the tax credit to the end of April, Stevenson said. It is currently set to go away on Dec. 1. Stevenson said he’s skeptical the tax credit will drive activity during the slower winter months. The prime selling season for the housing market kicks off in the spring and tends to run through the warmer months. “Of course, Congress could come back and extend it again,” the analyst said. “When the next selling season starts, the housing market will depend on the state of the economy and mortgage rates, rather than tax credits.”

The $6,500 credit for some repeat homebuyers would let more buyers participate albeit at a lower level, “but a lot of those people are effectively trapped in their current homes,” Stevenson said.

From their peak in 2006, U.S. home prices have fallen about 30% through the end of August 2009 during the housing downturn, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. More Americans are falling behind on their mortgage payments or losing their homes in the recession as job losses pile up. Rising foreclosures are another key worry. Yet hopes that a recovery is in place were fueled by a report showing the fourth straight month of rising home prices. Some attributed the tentative rebound to buyers rushing to cash in on the expiring $8,000 tax credit. The push to extend and expand the credit has been led by home builders, Realtors and other groups connected to the housing market.

“Failure to act now could derail the fragile housing recovery even before it has time to take root,” said Jerry Howard, president of the National Association of Home Builders, in a statement urging Congress to stretch the tax credit. “The consequences would be devastating for both housing and the economy.” Howard said the tax credit has already helped create nearly 200,000 jobs, drive home sales, stem foreclosures and stabilize prices. Homebuilder stocks were up sharply in the wake of the news on the Senate compromise. Still, some economists say the incentive’s impact is overblown.

“I am not applying the recent home-price rebound to the tax credit,” said Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree, in a recent interview. “I don’t think the tax credit makes as big an impact as people make it out to be, although it certainly motivates first-time buyers,” he said. “If it expires, I don’t think it would shake the housing market as much as some have predicted.”

The compromise on extending the tax credit doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing, and the proposal still face votes in Congress. One potential snag is a recent government report that uncovered fraud and abuse associated with the tax credit. Thousands of ineligible taxpayers have received millions of dollars under the program, according to the report.

Stephen East, an analyst at Pali Research, said the proposed new $6,500 credit would likely have some impact on the lower-end of the move-up market. “In essence, this could slowly start to prime the pump,” East forecast. “That said, we remain wary that any measurable impact will be seen until after the holidays and investors need to reconcile their expectations to that.”

(c) 2009, MarketWatch.com Inc.

RIS Media

The Possible Impact and Real Cost of Extending the First–Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

A recent survey conducted by Zillow in conjunction with Harris Interactive asked prospective first-time homebuyers how an extension of the $8,000 tax credit would influence their decision to buy a home next year. If the credit were extended, of those who intend to buy a home, 18% called the credit the “primary influence” in their decision, 25% said it would be a “significant influence,” and 27% said the credit would have “some” influence on any home buying decision. Thirty-one percent said it would have no influence at all on their decision to purchase.

According to further analysis, this suggests that the extended tax credit could, at minimum, stimulate an additional 334,000 home sales compared to what we would otherwise expect to see during the period between December 2009 and November 2010. That could spell the difference between a 5% annual increase in home sales over the period assuming an extension of the tax credit, versus a 2% annual decline in home sales without the tax credit. With no extension, there’s a good likelihood that home sales this January will dip below their January 2009 level (257,000 home sales in the month). This seems likely given that January 2010 home sales would be hit both by the loss of incremental home sales that would have been stimulated by the tax credit, as well as by the loss of sales that were pushed up to September or October 2009 (i.e., people who would have normally bought in January buying in September instead in order to avail themselves of the tax credit).

Of course, to get those 334,000 incremental home sales next year, we’ll have to give the tax credit to an estimated 1.86 million first-time home buyers, creating a net cost to the government of $14.86 billion for the extension. This gives one some sense of the magnitude of the leakage of the tax benefit to those that would have taken the desired action (buying a home) even without a government incentive. For every five homeowners who get the tax credit, four of them would have bought the home anyway. In essence, this means that the government will have to pay roughly $44,000 per home in order to obtain 334,000 more home sales than would have occurred without the tax credit.

Creating demand seems like a worthwhile endeavor, even if it’s temporary or simply shifts future demand closer to the present. Marginal demand is likely needed much more in the short-term to get the engine running again than it is long-term when the engine will be running on its own accord (i.e., the eventual bottom in home prices and decreasing unemployment will be large demand boosts). The trouble is, it’s quite possible the upside pressure created by this marginal demand is likely to be completely overwhelmed by the downside pressure created by the massive numbers of foreclosures we’ll see as the foreclosure rates increase on their way to a peak next year.

ALERT: 1st Time Buyer Tax Credit Ends December 1, 2009

$8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

The information on this page pertains to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

• The tax credit is for first-time home buyers only. For the tax credit program, the IRS defines a first-time home buyer as someone who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.
• The tax credit does not have to be repaid.
• The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.
• The credit is available for homes purchased on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
• Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.

For more information please visit http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com

Fed Extends MBS Purchase Program

Favorable news from the Fed, weaker than expected economic data, and strong demand for a record $112 billion in Treasury auctions helped mortgage markets this week. While the daily price movements were often large, mortgage rates ended the week just a little lower.As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate on Wednesday. Although there was much disagreement about what the statement would say, in general it contained the minimum number of surprises. The Fed offered its most optimistic view on the economy since the recession began, yet officials believe that slack in the economy will keep inflation low. Fed officials continue to expect the fed funds rate to remain at exceptionally low levels “for an extended period.”

Of particular significance for the mortgage industry, the end date for the $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program was moved from the end of this year to the end of the first quarter of next year. The total quantity of purchases will not change, and the Fed will gradually scale back the level of weekly purchases to minimize disruptions to mortgage markets. Investors had been concerned that the Fed statement might contain less favorable news, and mortgage rates improved after its release. Longer-term, the decrease in demand from the Fed is expected to move mortgage rates higher, and it might lead to greater daily volatility.

This week’s housing data was mixed. After four months of increases, August Existing Home Sales fell 3%. Inventories of unsold homes fell to an 8.5-month supply from a 9.3-month supply in July. First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of total sales. August New Home Sales rose slightly, and inventories dropped moderately.

Source, Jim Flynn of First Eastern Mortgage

Pending Home Sales on a Roll, Up for Sixth Straight Month

September 2, 2009—Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2% to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0% higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1.The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he said. “Other buyers are taking advantage of low home values before prices turn higher. Nationally, the typical mortgage payment now takes less than 25% of a middle-income family’s monthly income to buy a median priced home, with payment percentages so far in 2009 being the lowest on record dating back to 1970. As long as home buyers stay within their budget, mortgage payments will be very manageable,” Yun said.

NAR estimates that about 1.8 to 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit this year, with approximately 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit. Buyers have little time to act because they must complete the transaction by November 30, 2009 to qualify for the credit. Unless extended, contracts signed but not completed by that date will not be eligible- it is taking approximately two months to complete home sales in the current market.

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast declined 3.0% to 78.8 in July but is 4.7% higher than July 2008. In the Midwest the index slipped 2.0% to 88.1 but is 8.1% above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales activity rose 3.1% to an index of 103.8 in July and is 12.0% above July 2008. In the West the index jumped 12.1% to 112.5 and is 20.0% above a year ago.

NAR President Charles McMillan, said Congress needs to keep the momentum going. “Even with a good recovery taking place, the market is not yet back to normal. With a gradual absorption of inventory, we are on the cusp of a general stabilization in home prices,” he said. “To ensure that housing has a broad stimulus to the overall economy and stays on sound footing, we’re encouraging Congress to extend the tax credit into 2010, and to expand it to all buyers of primary residences. The faster we stabilize home prices, the fewer families will face foreclosure and the quicker credit can be extended to other sectors of the economy,” McMillan said.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) stood at 158.5 in July, below the peak set in April but is still 36.0 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.

Yun expects existing-home sales to rise through the fourth quarter. “Unless the tax credit is extended, no one should be surprised to see home sales drop in the first quarter of next year,” he said. “However, the fundamentals of the housing market and the economy are trending up, and we expect home sales to generally pick up in the second quarter of 2010. The buyer psychology may be shifting from, ‘Why buy now when I can purchase later,’ to ‘I don’t want to miss out on a recovery.’”
RISMEDIA

Why YOU Need a Realtor.

As you consider selling your home, you might be thinking “Why do I need a Realtor, what value does a Sellers Agent bring to the table?” There are five areas where a licensed Realtor can help you in your homes sale:

1.  SETTING THE PRICE

Pricing your home is a careful balance. Set the price too low and you leave money on the table. Set the price too high and your home will be on the market a long time, which just compounds the problem as it raises questions about it’s sale-ability.

As a Realtor, it is my job to know what properties like yours have sold for recently, and can utilize the detailed history of area sales to tell whether your home – with it’s unique features, location and condition – will bring more, or less, than similar listings. And I always have the pulse of the local and regional Real Estate market, so I know whether the market is heating up or cooling down, and can stay ahead of the trend, pricing your home to get you the highest possible price in the least amount of time.

2.  BEING OBJECTIVE

Selling a home can be an emotional experience. After all, it’s been a part of your life, perhaps the center of your life, for years. As a third party, a Realtor can keep you focused and provide independent feedback on things you should do, or changes and repairs that should be made, to help the home sell. I will also act as a buffer during negotiations. As licensed Realtors, we adhere to a strict code of ethics.

3.  PROVIDE MARKETING MUSCLE

Attracting interested people to view and buy your home does not happen automatically. We will market your home to the widest audience of potential buyers through a well-coordinated multimedia campaign. We use signs, Newspaper Ads, Internet and open houses, but you’ll also be placed in the Multiple Listing Service where local agents can bring it to the attention of their buyers, and then to Realtor.com and many many more outlets where it can be viewed by anyone in the world that is relocating to this area.

4.  PRE-QUALIFY BUYERS

Realtors help separate the serious buyers from the “tire kickers” and thus save you a lot of time and frustration. I will determine if buyers are serious by getting answers to questions about their motivations and purchasing power and by ensuring that they have been pre-qualified for a mortgage in the amount needed to buy your home. When we bring you an offer on your home, you can be sure that the buyers’ finances are sound and the deal is ready to be done.

5.  FOLLOW THROUGH and CLOSE THE DEAL

Selling your house is complicated and there is a mountain of paperwork. First there are offers and counter-offers. Then come the Contracts of Sale, inspection reports, disclosure forms, deeds, mortgage documents. We keep track of it all and see to every detail. Our value is in avoiding delays and mistakes, and coordinating the timing of the sale of this house with the purchase of another, so that you make a smooth transition to your new home.

SUMMARY

The value that a licensed Realtor brings to someone selling a house is, in the end, peace of mind. The marketing, the details, the paperwork, the coordination. We do it every day, and we enjoy the process. So relax and leave the details to us. You’ll find that having a knowledgeable Realtor beside you throughout the sale of your home is priceless.

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan Announces New FHA-Making Home Affordable Loan Modification Guidelines

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan announced the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has implemented changes to its loan modification program to ensure consistency with the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program. By August 15, FHA borrowers will be able to significantly reduce their monthly mortgage payments by seeking a loan modification through their current mortgage company or loan servicer under the new FHA-Home Affordable Modification Program (FHA-HAMP).

“We’re bringing another important tool to the table to help struggling families who are desperate to keep their homes,” said Donovan. “Tens of thousands of FHA borrowers will now be able to modify their mortgages in the same manner as so many others who are taking advantage of the Administration’s Making Home Affordable program. This is just the latest tool we are providing to help homeowners prevent foreclosures through the Making Home Affordable program. Earlier this month we announced an expansion of the Home Affordable Refinance Program to borrowers who are up to 125 percent underwater. Together, these actions will significantly increase the help available to homeowners.”

The Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009, signed into law on May 20, allows FHA to give qualified FHA-insured borrowers the opportunity to reduce their monthly mortgage payment by modifying the mortgage through FHA-HAMP.

FHA expects all servicers to implement the changes by August 15. The program permanently reduces a family’s monthly mortgage payment through the use of a partial claim, which defers the repayment of mortgage principal through an interest-free subordinate mortgage that is not due until the first mortgage is paid off.

FHA has used the partial claim option in the past, which allows a lender to advance funds on behalf of a borrower, to reinstate a delinquent loan that was up to 12 months delinquent. Now, this program will allow HUD to bring the borrower’s payment down to an affordable level. This will be accomplished by bringing the mortgage current, buying down the loan by up to 30% of the unpaid principal balance and deferring these amounts in a partial claim.

FHA will pay an incentive to loan servicers for each FHA loan modified under this program. A Mortgagee Letter, along with detailed requirements for the FHA-Home Affordable Modification Program, was recently distributed to all FHA lenders. The implementation of this program will further the Obama Administration’s efforts to stabilize the housing market by helping homeowners to stay current on their mortgages and stay in their homes, therefore preventing the destructive impact of foreclosures on families and communities.

Making Home Affordable, a comprehensive plan to stabilize the U.S. housing market, was first announced by the Obama Administration on February 18. More than 200,000 trial loan modifications are already underway, tens of thousands of refinancings have closed, and informational mailings about the program have been sent to more than one million borrowers who may be eligible.

For more information, visit www.makinghomeaffordable.gov.

Source:  RIS Media

ERA Bay State Realty Wins 2009 National Award for Marketing Success

Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

ERA Bay State Realty Receives 2009 Best of Local Business Award

U.S. Commerce Association’s Award Plaque Honors the Achievement

WASHINGTON D.C., July 1, 2009 — ERA Bay State Realty has been selected for the 2009 Best of Millis Award in the Residential Real Estate Agent category by the U.S. Commerce Association (USCA).

The USCA “Best of Local Business” Award Program recognizes outstanding local businesses throughout the country. Each year, the USCA identifies companies that they believe have achieved exceptional marketing success in their local community and business category. These are local companies that enhance the positive image of small business through service to their customers and community.

Various sources of information were gathered and analyzed to choose the winners in each category. The 2009 USCA Award Program focused on quality, not quantity. Winners are determined based on the information gathered both internally by the USCA and data provided by third parties.

ERA BAY STATE REALTY Broker/Owner, Jeffrey Germagian expressed his sincere gratitude for the recognition.  “Our success has been directly related to the incredible team here at ERA Bay State Realty, who offer the best in real estate service/support locally and throughout the Metrowest region. During these trying economic times it is rewarding to have this kind of recognition. 

“We are very pleased to have been selected for this marketing distinction.  We pride ourselves in our print advertisements, brochures, direct mail campaigns, target marketing, and our award winning web site www.baystaterealty.com.  The secret to effective marketing is focusing on marketing that gets results and I think we achieve that for our clients”, says Michele Bliss, Marketing Director.

About U.S. Commerce Association (USCA)

U.S. Commerce Association (USCA) is a Washington D.C. based organization funded by local businesses operating in towns, large and small, across America. The purpose of USCA is to promote local business through public relations, marketing and advertising.

The USCA was established to recognize the best of local businesses in their community. Our organization works exclusively with local business owners, trade groups, professional associations, chambers of commerce and other business advertising and marketing groups. Our mission is to be an advocate for small and medium size businesses and business entrepreneurs across America.

About ERA Bay State Realty

ERA Bay State Realty, established in 1968 and still owned and operated by Jeffrey Germagian, son of founder, Charles Germagian, is the oldest, most experienced full service real estate firm in Millis.  In addition to employing who we think are the most experienced and educated realtors, we also have our Manager, Janet Potts, who brings over 18 years of real estate experience to our office, and our Marketing Director, Michele Bliss, who brings innovative thinking and creative expertise to real estate marketing.  We are located at 707 Main Street in Millis and can be reached at 508-376-8200 or online at www.baystaterealty.com.

 

SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Association

CONTACT:
U.S. Commerce Association
Email: PublicRelations@us-ca.org
URL: http://www.us-ca.org

Refinance Applications Make up 55% of Weekly Apps

The total mortgage loan application volume rose 2.8% for the week ending July 17, climbing for the third consecutive week, according to a weekly survey released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Compared to the same week last year, the index increased 6.6%.

Refinancing applications jumped 4% from the previous week, and took 55.5% of the total mortgage activity, compared to 54.9% a week earlier, according to the survey.

The MBA, which also surveys mortgage rates, saw increases across the board. The rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.31% from 5.05% a week earlier with points increasing to 1.18 from 1.12, and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages bumped to 4.8% at 1.03 points from 4.59% a week ago.

But the amount of loan applications per household fell 2.1% for the week, according to a weekly survey from Mortgage Maxx, which adjusts raw application data to count multiple applications from within a single household as one participant in the application process.

The Mortgage Application Index — or MAX — reported only a ripple of mortgage activity despite three weeks of lower rates.

“With refinancing wallowing, and REO making up such a large proportion [of] housing sales, organic sales continue to remain dismal,” the Maxx reported. “With well publicized troubles in obtaining consumer financing still ‘stuck on stupid’ hope for a quick solution remains quixotic.”

 - Housingwire.com

Great Conditions for Home Buyers

Take a moment to consider these facts: *There are currently 3.75 million homes for sale. Inventories in recent months have been at record levels, offering consumers the greatest choice in decades. *However, inventory levels are falling, and the selection of homes will be come limited once again. *Interest rates haven’t been this low for nearly 40 years. *The average home value increased by 88 percent over the last ten years. In the decade to come, the number of households is expected to increase by 15 percent, which keeps housing in high demand. Expect change in 2007 as sales pipck up, prices gain traction, and conditions improve for sellers.

Source:  Real Estate Update, August 2007